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Spain

Group H·1× World Champion·FIFA #1·Luis de la Fuente

Outright
+400
Implied Prob
20.0%
Group Winner
-400
Market Edge Actionable
Sportsbooks
19.8%
BetMGM · FanDuel avg.
−4.8pp
Prediction Mkt
15.0%
Polymarket
U.S. sportsbooks imply 19.8% for Spain to win the tournament. Polymarket prices the same outcome at 15.0%. That's a 4.8-point gap — well above the 3% threshold where cross-market divergence becomes worth attention.
Group H 4 teams
TeamFIFAGroup Odds
Spain
1 -400
Uruguay
17 +300
Saudi Arabia
60 +1200
Cape Verde
68 +3000
Outright Winner Odds 3 sources
US Regulated
BetMGM
+400
20.0%
FanDuel
+410
19.6%
Prediction Markets
Polymarket
+567
15.0%
Group H Fixtures 3 matches
15
Jun
ESPvsCPV
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta 12:00 PM ET
21
Jun
ESPvsKSA
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta 12:00 PM ET
26
Jun
ESPvsURU
Estadio Akron, Guadalajara 8:00 PM ET
Frequently Asked Questions 6
Spain are priced at +400 (20.0% implied) at BetMGM and +410 (19.6%) at FanDuel to win the 2026 World Cup outright. Polymarket trades lower at approximately 15%, creating a roughly 5-point gap between regulated books and prediction markets. At BetMGM, Spain leads all teams with 13.6% of tickets and 18.5% of handle.
Group H: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay. The first two matches are at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (June 15 and 21). The third is at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara on June 26. Top two advance automatically; the eight best third-place teams also qualify for the Round of 32.
Spain vs Cape Verde, Monday June 15 at 12:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. Spain are -400 to top the group and face Saudi Arabia six days later at the same venue.
Polymarket prices Spain at 15.0% to win the tournament — 4.8 points below the 19.8% sportsbook average. The World Cup winner contract has generated over $179M in trading volume on Polymarket alone. Gaps above 3% cross the actionable threshold, meaning one side of the market may be mispricing the outcome.
FIFA #1 as of January 2026. One World Cup title (2010) and four European Championships (1964, 2008, 2012, 2024). Managed by Luis de la Fuente. Spain won five of six World Cup qualifying matches, drawing only against Turkey.
This page compares Spain's outright and group winner odds across BetMGM, FanDuel, and Polymarket. The delta between regulated sportsbooks and prediction markets is calculated automatically — when the gap exceeds 3%, it's flagged as actionable.
All Teams 42 confirmed
Pre-tournament snapshot Generated 2026-02-23 UTC · Sources: BetMGM, FanDuel, Polymarket, FIFA.com
Prediction market prices reflect last traded contract price, not mid-market.
Schedule per FIFA official match schedule (Dec 2025).